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Humenné vs Mladosť Kalša — 3. liga - East 2020

Humenné
Humenné
FT
5 – 2
Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
8/8/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 3Chemlonský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Humenné76%
×Draw13%
Mladosť Kalša11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
3.34
Mladosť Kalša
1.25

Humenné creates 167% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Humenné
3.82
Mladosť Kalša
1.82

allows per match

Humenné
0.68
Mladosť Kalša
2.86

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Mladosť Kalša →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
89%
Humenné or Mladosť Kalša
87%
Draw or Mladosť Kalša
24%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
57%
Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
96%
Humenné 2+ goals
84%
Humenné 3+ goals
63%
Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
71%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
36%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
87%
Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 3.82, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Mladosť Kalša away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 3.82 + Mladosť Kalša defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 3.34

Mladosť Kalša attack 1.82 + Humenné defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Humenné scores more
76%
level
13%
Mladosť Kalša scores more
11%

Humenné at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Humenné vs Mladosť Kalša

Humenné beat Mladosť Kalša 5-2 in 3. liga - East on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Chemlonský štadión in Humenné.