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Humenné vs Družstevník Plavnica — 3. liga - East 2020

Humenné
Humenné
FT
5 – 0
Družstevník Plavnica
Družstevník Plavnica
9/26/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 10Chemlonský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Humenné79%
×Draw13%
Družstevník Plavnica8%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humenné
3.08
Družstevník Plavnica
0.93

Humenné creates 231% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

creates per match

Humenné
3.82
Družstevník Plavnica
1.17

allows per match

Humenné
0.68
Družstevník Plavnica
2.33

finishing

Humenné+0.00on par
Družstevník Plavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humenné ↓

Družstevník Plavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Humenné or draw
92%
Humenné or Družstevník Plavnica
87%
Draw or Družstevník Plavnica
21%

Winning margin

Humenné wins by 2+
60%
Družstevník Plavnica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Humenné 1+ goals
95%
Humenné 2+ goals
81%
Humenné 3+ goals
58%
Družstevník Plavnica 1+ goals
61%
Družstevník Plavnica 2+ goals
24%
Družstevník Plavnica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Humenné (draw refunded)
90%
Družstevník Plavnica (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humenné at home — creates 3.82, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Družstevník Plavnica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humenné attack 3.82 + Družstevník Plavnica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.08

Družstevník Plavnica attack 1.17 + Humenné defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Humenné scores more
79%
level
13%
Družstevník Plavnica scores more
8%

Humenné at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Humenné will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Humenné vs Družstevník Plavnica

Humenné beat Družstevník Plavnica 5-0 in 3. liga - East on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Chemlonský štadión in Humenné.