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Hume City vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Hume City
Hume City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
L. Isgrove 62'
A. Brennan 22'
3/21/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 7Nasiol Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Hume City38%
×Draw25%
South Melbourne37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hume City
1.40
South Melbourne
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hume City
1.64
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Hume City
1.25
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Hume City+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hume City ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hume City or draw
63%
Hume City or South Melbourne
75%
Draw or South Melbourne
62%

Winning margin

Hume City wins by 2+
18%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hume City 1+ goals
75%
Hume City 2+ goals
41%
Hume City 3+ goals
17%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
75%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
40%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hume City (draw refunded)
51%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hume City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hume City attack 1.64 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.40

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Hume City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hume City scores more
38%
level
25%
South Melbourne scores more
37%

Hume City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Brennan
62'
L. Isgrove

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Hume City 1–1 South Melbourne

Hume City and South Melbourne drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL on March 21, 2025.

Goals: A. Brennan (22'), L. Isgrove (62').

The match was played at Nasiol Stadium in Melbourne.