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Hume City vs Port Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Hume City
Hume City
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Port Melbourne
Port Melbourne
3/2/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 4Hume City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Hume City45%
×Draw24%
Port Melbourne31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hume City
1.71
Port Melbourne
1.38

Hume City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 76 away

creates per match

Hume City
1.64
Port Melbourne
1.50

allows per match

Hume City
1.25
Port Melbourne
1.79

finishing

Hume City+0.00on par
Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hume City ↓

Port Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hume City or draw
69%
Hume City or Port Melbourne
76%
Draw or Port Melbourne
55%

Winning margin

Hume City wins by 2+
24%
Port Melbourne wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hume City 1+ goals
82%
Hume City 2+ goals
51%
Hume City 3+ goals
24%
Port Melbourne 1+ goals
75%
Port Melbourne 2+ goals
40%
Port Melbourne 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hume City (draw refunded)
59%
Port Melbourne (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hume City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hume City attack 1.64 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + Hume City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hume City scores more
45%
level
24%
Port Melbourne scores more
31%

Hume City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Hume City 4–0 Port Melbourne

Hume City beat Port Melbourne 4-0 in Victoria NPL on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Hume City Stadium in Melbourne.