Hume City 1–5 Kingston City: Result & Stats

Hume City

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Kingston City

T. Harris 63'

C. Legrand 80', 19'

D. Iaconis 26'

A. Caniglia 25'

A. Theo 15'

8/25/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 26ABD Stadium Broadmeadows Valley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hume City47%

×Draw23%

Kingston City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hume CityExpected goals in this matchKingston City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.44

Hume City

1.82

Kingston City

1.44

Hume City creates 26% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 13 away

1.64

creates per match

1.62

1.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Hume City

1.64

Kingston City

1.62

allows per match

Hume City

1.25

Kingston City

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hume City+0.00on par

Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hume City ↓

Kingston City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hume City or draw

69%

Hume City or Kingston City

77%

Draw or Kingston City

53%

Winning margin

Hume City wins by 2+

25%

Kingston City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hume City 1+ goals

84%

Hume City 2+ goals

54%

Hume City 3+ goals

27%

Kingston City 1+ goals

76%

Kingston City 2+ goals

42%

Kingston City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hume City (draw refunded)

60%

Kingston City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hume City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hume City attack 1.64 + Kingston City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Kingston City attack 1.62 + Hume City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hume City scores more

47%

level

23%

Kingston City scores more

31%

Hume City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Theo

19'

C. Legrand

25'

A. Caniglia

26'

D. Iaconis

63'

T. Harris

80'

C. Legrand

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff