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Hume City vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026

Hume City
Hume City
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Green Gully
Green Gully
R. Harker 55', 40'
H. Ascroft 17'
E. Kifle 45+3'
A. Bayew 37'
5/30/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 16Nasiol Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Hume City44%
×Draw25%
Green Gully31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hume City
1.58
Green Gully
1.29

Hume City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

creates per match

Hume City
1.64
Green Gully
1.32

allows per match

Hume City
1.25
Green Gully
1.52

finishing

Hume City+0.00on par
Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hume City ↓

Green Gully →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hume City or draw
69%
Hume City or Green Gully
75%
Draw or Green Gully
56%

Winning margin

Hume City wins by 2+
22%
Green Gully wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hume City 1+ goals
79%
Hume City 2+ goals
47%
Hume City 3+ goals
21%
Green Gully 1+ goals
72%
Green Gully 2+ goals
37%
Green Gully 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hume City (draw refunded)
59%
Green Gully (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hume City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.25 · 87 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hume City attack 1.64 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Hume City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hume City scores more
44%
level
25%
Green Gully scores more
31%

Hume City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hume City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
H. Ascroft
37'
A. Bayew
40'
R. Harker
45+3'
E. Kifle
55'
R. Harker

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Hume City 3–2 Green Gully

Hume City beat Green Gully 3-2 in Victoria NPL on May 30, 2025.

Goals: H. Ascroft (17'), A. Bayew (37'), R. Harker (40', 55'), E. Kifle (45+3').

The match was played at Nasiol Stadium in Melbourne.