Humble Lions 1–0 Treasure Beach: Result & Stats

Humble Lions

FT

1 – 0

Treasure Beach

10/22/2023

Premier League · Round 1Effortville Community Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Humble Lions43%

×Draw28%

Treasure Beach28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Humble LionsExpected goals in this matchTreasure Beach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Humble Lions

1.27

Treasure Beach

0.96

Humble Lions creates 32% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 31 away

1.10

creates per match

0.87

1.04

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Humble Lions

1.10

Treasure Beach

0.87

allows per match

Humble Lions

1.04

Treasure Beach

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humble Lions+0.00on par

Treasure Beach+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humble Lions ↓

Treasure Beach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Humble Lions or draw

72%

Humble Lions or Treasure Beach

72%

Draw or Treasure Beach

57%

Winning margin

Humble Lions wins by 2+

20%

Treasure Beach wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Humble Lions 1+ goals

72%

Humble Lions 2+ goals

36%

Humble Lions 3+ goals

14%

Treasure Beach 1+ goals

62%

Treasure Beach 2+ goals

25%

Treasure Beach 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Humble Lions (draw refunded)

61%

Treasure Beach (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humble Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Treasure Beach away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humble Lions attack 1.10 + Treasure Beach defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Treasure Beach attack 0.87 + Humble Lions defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Humble Lions scores more

43%

level

28%

Treasure Beach scores more

28%

Humble Lions at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Humble Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff