Humble Lions vs Tivoli Gardens — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 79+ matches
Humble Lions39%
Tivoli Gardens33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Humble Lions creates 11% more chances
Season form · 79 home / 100 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Humble Lions ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Humble Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches
Tivoli Gardens away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Humble Lions attack 1.10 + Tivoli Gardens defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27
Tivoli Gardens attack 1.24 + Humble Lions defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Humble Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Humble Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Waterhouse
Mount Pleasant Academy
Portmore UnitedHumble LionsTivoli Gardens
Dunbeholden
Arnett Gardens
Cavalier
Harbour View
Molynes United
UWI
Vere UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Humble Lions host Tivoli Gardens on Wednesday, 25 March 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Preview: Humble Lions host Tivoli Gardens
March 25, 2020: Humble Lions take on Tivoli Gardens in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Humble Lions host Tivoli Gardens at Effortville Community Centre.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.