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Humble Lions vs Mount Pleasant Academy — Premier League 2019

Humble Lions
Humble Lions
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Mount Pleasant Academy
Mount Pleasant Academy
12/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Humble Lions27%
×Draw27%
Mount Pleasant Academy46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humble Lions
0.97
Mount Pleasant Academy
1.36

Mount Pleasant Academy creates 40% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 103 away

creates per match

Humble Lions
1.10
Mount Pleasant Academy
1.68

allows per match

Humble Lions
1.04
Mount Pleasant Academy
0.83

finishing

Humble Lions+0.00on par
Mount Pleasant Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humble Lions ↓

Mount Pleasant Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Humble Lions or draw
54%
Humble Lions or Mount Pleasant Academy
73%
Draw or Mount Pleasant Academy
73%

Winning margin

Humble Lions wins by 2+
10%
Mount Pleasant Academy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Humble Lions 1+ goals
62%
Humble Lions 2+ goals
25%
Humble Lions 3+ goals
7%
Mount Pleasant Academy 1+ goals
74%
Mount Pleasant Academy 2+ goals
39%
Mount Pleasant Academy 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Humble Lions (draw refunded)
37%
Mount Pleasant Academy (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humble Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Mount Pleasant Academy away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humble Lions attack 1.10 + Mount Pleasant Academy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Mount Pleasant Academy attack 1.68 + Humble Lions defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Humble Lions scores more
27%
level
27%
Mount Pleasant Academy scores more
46%

Mount Pleasant Academy at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mount Pleasant Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Humble Lions 1–4 Mount Pleasant Academy

Mount Pleasant Academy beat Humble Lions 4-1 in Premier League on December 9, 2024.

The match was played at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex in Kingston.