Humble Lions 2–0 Faulkland: Result & Stats

Humble Lions

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Faulkland

11/6/2022

Premier League · Round 3Effortville Community Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Humble Lions55%

×Draw25%

Faulkland20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Humble LionsExpected goals in this matchFaulkland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.83

Humble Lions

1.58

Faulkland

0.83

Humble Lions creates 90% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

1.09

creates per match

0.62

1.04

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Humble Lions

1.09

Faulkland

0.62

allows per match

Humble Lions

1.04

Faulkland

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humble Lions+0.00on par

Faulkland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humble Lions ↓

Faulkland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Humble Lions or draw

80%

Humble Lions or Faulkland

75%

Draw or Faulkland

45%

Winning margin

Humble Lions wins by 2+

29%

Faulkland wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Humble Lions 1+ goals

79%

Humble Lions 2+ goals

47%

Humble Lions 3+ goals

21%

Faulkland 1+ goals

56%

Faulkland 2+ goals

20%

Faulkland 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Humble Lions (draw refunded)

74%

Faulkland (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humble Lions at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 78 matches

Faulkland away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humble Lions attack 1.09 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Faulkland attack 0.62 + Humble Lions defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Humble Lions scores more

55%

level

25%

Faulkland scores more

20%

Humble Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Humble Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff