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Humaitá vs Trem — Serie D 2026

Humaitá
Humaitá
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Trem
Trem
Vitor Wallace 63'
L. Cassimiro 45'
J. Moreira 78'
Wendel 74'
Dudu 69'
Wanderson Gotinha 66'
7/6/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 11Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Humaitá29%
×Draw23%
Trem48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humaitá
1.31
Trem
1.76

Trem creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

creates per match

Humaitá
0.79
Trem
1.17

allows per match

Humaitá
2.36
Trem
1.83

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par
Trem+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

Trem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw
52%
Humaitá or Trem
77%
Draw or Trem
71%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+
12%
Trem wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals
73%
Humaitá 2+ goals
38%
Humaitá 3+ goals
14%
Trem 1+ goals
83%
Trem 2+ goals
52%
Trem 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)
37%
Trem (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

Trem away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 0.79 + Trem defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Trem attack 1.17 + Humaitá defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Humaitá scores more
29%
level
23%
Trem scores more
48%

Trem at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
L. Cassimiro
63'
Vitor Wallace
66'
Wanderson Gotinha
69'
Dudu
74'
Wendel
78'
J. Moreira
Humaitá
Trem
Erismeu
Manager: Erismeu
Sandro Macapá
Manager: Sandro Macapá

Serie D: Humaitá 2–4 Trem

Trem beat Humaitá 4-2 in Serie D on July 6, 2025.

Goals: L. Cassimiro (45'), Vitor Wallace (63'), Wanderson Gotinha (66'), Dudu (69'), Wendel (74'), J. Moreira (78').

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.