Humaitá 2–2 Princesa Solimões: Result & Stats

Humaitá

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Princesa Solimões

Fernandinho 90+7'

André Lima 34'

Max Nóbrega 62', 45+4'

6/17/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Humaitá26%

×Draw24%

Princesa Solimões50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumaitáExpected goals in this matchPrincesa Solimões

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.68

Humaitá

1.15

Princesa Solimões

1.68

Princesa Solimões creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 16 away

0.79

creates per match

1.00

2.36

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Humaitá

0.79

Princesa Solimões

1.00

allows per match

Humaitá

2.36

Princesa Solimões

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par

Princesa Solimões+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

Princesa Solimões →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw

50%

Humaitá or Princesa Solimões

76%

Draw or Princesa Solimões

74%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+

10%

Princesa Solimões wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals

68%

Humaitá 2+ goals

32%

Humaitá 3+ goals

11%

Princesa Solimões 1+ goals

81%

Princesa Solimões 2+ goals

50%

Princesa Solimões 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)

34%

Princesa Solimões (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

Princesa Solimões away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 0.79 + Princesa Solimões defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Princesa Solimões attack 1.00 + Humaitá defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Humaitá scores more

26%

level

24%

Princesa Solimões scores more

50%

Princesa Solimões at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Princesa Solimões will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

André Lima

45+4'

Max Nóbrega

46'

Cásio← Pisika

46'

Lucas← Índio

62'

Max Nóbrega

75'

Vinícius← Breno

76'

P. Koffi← Max Nóbrega

79'

Jonas Alves← Jonas

86'

Waldson← Serjão

90+4'

Jojo

90+7'

Fernandinho

Humaitá

Princesa

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Mauricio

46'▲Cásio←▼Pisika

46'▲Lucas←▼Índio

75'▲Vinícius←▼Breno

Humaitá substitutes

CásioLucasViníciusBabauCarlosDuduLéoPaulo

Manager: Aderbal

76'▲P. Koffi←▼Max Nóbrega

79'▲Jonas Alves←▼Jonas

86'▲Waldson←▼Serjão

Princesa Solimões substitutes

KoffiAlvesWaldsonFabrícioJuciLucianoToró