Humaitá 1–5 Porto Velho: Result & Stats | Serie D

Humaitá

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Porto Velho

Erick Silva 51'

Wellington Nunes 90'

Luan Viana 78'

Franca 42'

Ruan Costa 39'

Jeferson 21'

4/5/2026

Serie D · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Humaitá24%

×Draw23%

Porto Velho53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HumaitáExpected goals in this matchPorto Velho

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.88

Humaitá

1.19

Porto Velho

1.88

Porto Velho creates 58% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 36 away

0.79

creates per match

1.39

2.36

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Humaitá

0.79

Porto Velho

1.39

allows per match

Humaitá

2.36

Porto Velho

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par

Porto Velho+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

Porto Velho →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw

47%

Humaitá or Porto Velho

77%

Draw or Porto Velho

76%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+

10%

Porto Velho wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals

70%

Humaitá 2+ goals

33%

Humaitá 3+ goals

12%

Porto Velho 1+ goals

85%

Porto Velho 2+ goals

56%

Porto Velho 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)

31%

Porto Velho (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

Porto Velho away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.58 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 0.79 + Porto Velho defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Porto Velho attack 1.39 + Humaitá defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Humaitá scores more

24%

level

23%

Porto Velho scores more

53%

Porto Velho at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Porto Velho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

39'

42'

51'

78'

90'

Humaitá

Porto

Manager: Erismeu

Manager: Paulo Pereira