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Humaitá vs Manauara — Serie D 2026

Humaitá
Humaitá
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Manauara
Manauara
J. Hassen 84'
Pedrinho 77'
Manoel 75'
Kadu Barone 1'
6/15/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Humaitá14%
×Draw22%
Manauara64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humaitá
0.72
Manauara
1.86

Manauara creates 158% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Humaitá
0.79
Manauara
1.36

allows per match

Humaitá
2.36
Manauara
0.64

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par
Manauara+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

Manauara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw
36%
Humaitá or Manauara
78%
Draw or Manauara
86%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+
4%
Manauara wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals
51%
Humaitá 2+ goals
16%
Humaitá 3+ goals
4%
Manauara 1+ goals
84%
Manauara 2+ goals
55%
Manauara 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)
18%
Manauara (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

Manauara away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 0.79 + Manauara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Manauara attack 1.36 + Humaitá defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Humaitá scores more
14%
level
22%
Manauara scores more
64%

Manauara at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Manauara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Kadu Barone
75'
Manoel
77'
Pedrinho
84'
J. Hassen
Humaitá
Manauara
Erismeu
Manager: Erismeu
Luís Carlos Winck
Manager: Luís Carlos Winck

Match Recap: Humaitá vs Manauara

Humaitá and Manauara drew 2-2 in Serie D on June 15, 2025.

Goals: Kadu Barone (1'), Manoel (75'), Pedrinho (77'), J. Hassen (84').

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.