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Humaitá vs Águia de Marabá — Serie D 2026

Humaitá
Humaitá
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Águia de Marabá
Águia de Marabá
H. Mpasso 60'
Daniel GTA 78', 44'
Romarinho 45'
6/1/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Humaitá25%
×Draw24%
Águia de Marabá50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Humaitá
1.10
Águia de Marabá
1.65

Águia de Marabá creates 50% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

creates per match

Humaitá
0.79
Águia de Marabá
0.93

allows per match

Humaitá
2.36
Águia de Marabá
1.41

finishing

Humaitá+0.00on par
Águia de Marabá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Humaitá ↓

Águia de Marabá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Humaitá or draw
50%
Humaitá or Águia de Marabá
76%
Draw or Águia de Marabá
75%

Winning margin

Humaitá wins by 2+
10%
Águia de Marabá wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Humaitá 1+ goals
67%
Humaitá 2+ goals
30%
Humaitá 3+ goals
10%
Águia de Marabá 1+ goals
81%
Águia de Marabá 2+ goals
49%
Águia de Marabá 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Humaitá (draw refunded)
34%
Águia de Marabá (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Humaitá at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.36 · 33 matches

Águia de Marabá away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Humaitá attack 0.79 + Águia de Marabá defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.10

Águia de Marabá attack 0.93 + Humaitá defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Humaitá scores more
25%
level
24%
Águia de Marabá scores more
50%

Águia de Marabá at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Águia de Marabá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
Daniel GTA
45'
Romarinho
60'
H. Mpasso
78'
Daniel GTA
Humaitá
Águia
Erismeu
Manager: Erismeu
Sílvio Criciúma
Manager: Sílvio Criciúma

Serie D: Humaitá 1–3 Águia de Marabá

Águia de Marabá beat Humaitá 3-1 in Serie D on June 1, 2025.

Goals: Daniel GTA (44', 78'), Romarinho (45'), H. Mpasso (60').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes in Rio Branco, Acre.