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Hull City W vs Wolverhampton W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Hull City W
Hull City W
FT
1 – 4
Wolverhampton W
Wolverhampton W
12/17/2023FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundEasy Buy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hull City W9%
×Draw11%
Wolverhampton W81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City W
1.38
Wolverhampton W
4.06

Wolverhampton W creates 194% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hull City W
1.75
Wolverhampton W
4.88

allows per match

Hull City W
3.25
Wolverhampton W
1.00

finishing

Hull City W+0.00on par
Wolverhampton W+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City W ↓

Wolverhampton W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Hull City W or draw
19%
Hull City W or Wolverhampton W
89%
Draw or Wolverhampton W
91%

Winning margin

Hull City W wins by 2+
3%
Wolverhampton W wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

Hull City W 1+ goals
75%
Hull City W 2+ goals
40%
Hull City W 3+ goals
16%
Wolverhampton W 1+ goals
98%
Wolverhampton W 2+ goals
90%
Wolverhampton W 3+ goals
74%

Draw no bet

Hull City W (draw refunded)
10%
Wolverhampton W (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Wolverhampton W away — creates 4.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City W attack 1.75 + Wolverhampton W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wolverhampton W attack 4.88 + Hull City W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 4.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Hull City W scores more
9%
level
11%
Wolverhampton W scores more
81%

Wolverhampton W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Wolverhampton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Hull City W 1–4 Wolverhampton W

Wolverhampton W beat Hull City W 4-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Easy Buy Stadium in Barton-upon-Humber, Lincolnshire.