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Hull City W vs Liverpool Feds W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Hull City W
Hull City W
FT
1 – 2
Liverpool Feds W
Liverpool Feds W
11/28/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundHaworth Park Sports Facility

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hull City W12%
×Draw12%
Liverpool Feds W76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City W
1.52
Liverpool Feds W
3.77

Liverpool Feds W creates 148% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hull City W
1.75
Liverpool Feds W
4.29

allows per match

Hull City W
3.25
Liverpool Feds W
1.29

finishing

Hull City W+0.00on par
Liverpool Feds W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City W ↓

Liverpool Feds W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Hull City W or draw
24%
Hull City W or Liverpool Feds W
88%
Draw or Liverpool Feds W
88%

Winning margin

Hull City W wins by 2+
5%
Liverpool Feds W wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Hull City W 1+ goals
78%
Hull City W 2+ goals
45%
Hull City W 3+ goals
20%
Liverpool Feds W 1+ goals
97%
Liverpool Feds W 2+ goals
88%
Liverpool Feds W 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

Hull City W (draw refunded)
13%
Liverpool Feds W (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Liverpool Feds W away — creates 4.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City W attack 1.75 + Liverpool Feds W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Liverpool Feds W attack 4.29 + Hull City W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hull City W scores more
12%
level
12%
Liverpool Feds W scores more
76%

Liverpool Feds W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Liverpool Feds W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Hull City W 1–2 Liverpool Feds W

Liverpool Feds W beat Hull City W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Haworth Park Sports Facility in Kingston upon Hull, Hull, Kingston upon Hull.