Hull City 1–2 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tottenham

J. Livermore 8'

C. Eriksen 90'

H. Kane 61'

11/23/2014

Premier League · Round 12Kingston Communications Stadium (Hull)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City31%

×Draw24%

Tottenham45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.63

Hull City

1.30

Tottenham

1.63

Tottenham creates 25% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 201 away

1.26

creates per match

1.63

1.64

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

Tottenham

1.63

allows per match

Hull City

1.64

Tottenham

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Tottenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

55%

Hull City or Tottenham

76%

Draw or Tottenham

69%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

13%

Tottenham wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

73%

Hull City 2+ goals

37%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Tottenham 1+ goals

80%

Tottenham 2+ goals

48%

Tottenham 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

40%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Tottenham defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tottenham attack 1.63 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hull City scores more

31%

level

24%

Tottenham scores more

45%

Tottenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Livermore

46'

V. Chiricheş← E. Dier

57'

D. Meyler← H. Ben Arfa

59'

A. Lennon← M. Dembélé

61'

H. Kane

64'

L. Rosenior← T. Huddlestone

79'

Paulinho← Soldado

87'

S. Quinn← R. Brady

90'

C. Eriksen↳ A. Lennon

Hull

Tottenham

1

5

21

33

15

▼

Dier

19

▼

Dembélé

38

Mason

23

⚽

Eriksen

9

▼

Soldado

11

Lamela

18

⚽

1

21

6

26

34

▼

Arfa

8

▼

Huddlesto

27

Mohamady

14

⚽

Livermore

25

Ramírez

18

Jelavić

11

▼

Brady

57'▲D. Meyler←▼H. Ben Arfa

64'▲L. Rosenior←▼T. Huddlestone

87'▲S. Quinn←▼R. Brady

Hull City substitutes

7Meyler2Rosenior29Quinn9Hernández5Chester22Harper20Sagbo

46'▲V. Chiricheş←▼E. Dier

59'▲A. Lennon←▼M. Dembélé

79'▲Paulinho←▼Soldado

Tottenham substitutes

6Chiricheş7Lennon8Paulinho13Vorm25Stambouli39Ceballos46Ball