Hull City 2–1 Southampton: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Southampton

M. Dawson 63'

R. Snodgrass 61'

C. Austin 6' (pen)

11/6/2016

Premier League · Round 11KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City40%

×Draw25%

Southampton35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchSouthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.36

Hull City

1.46

Southampton

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 168 away

1.26

creates per match

1.08

1.64

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

Southampton

1.08

allows per match

Hull City

1.64

Southampton

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Southampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Southampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

65%

Hull City or Southampton

75%

Draw or Southampton

60%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

19%

Southampton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

77%

Hull City 2+ goals

43%

Hull City 3+ goals

18%

Southampton 1+ goals

74%

Southampton 2+ goals

39%

Southampton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

53%

Southampton (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.65 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Southampton defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Southampton attack 1.08 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hull City scores more

40%

level

25%

Southampton scores more

35%

Hull City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Dawson

Hull City · D

8.4

Match Events

6'

C. AustinPenalty

9'

D. Mbokani← A. Hernández

26'

R. Snodgrass← W. Keane

29'

Dušan Tadić

57'

Jordy Clasie

61'

R. Snodgrass↳ S. Clucas

63'

M. Dawson↳ R. Snodgrass

66'

S. Boufal← D. Tadić

72'

Ryan Bertrand

74'

T. Huddlestone← H. Maguire

77'

J. Rodriguez← N. Redmond

77'

J. Ward-Prowse← J. Clasie

83'

Maya Yoshida

90'

Oriol Romeu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullSouthampton

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots19

1Corners10

13Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots19

2On Target7

4Off Target5

0Blocked7

4Inside Box13

2Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

319Total Passes631

228Accurate Passes538

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls15

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1