Hull City 4–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Rotherham

11/28/2023

Championship · Round 18The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Hull City49%

×Draw26%

Rotherham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

Hull City

1.50

Rotherham

0.97

Hull City creates 55% more chances

Season form · 164 home / 92 away

1.26

creates per match

0.68

1.25

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

Rotherham

0.68

allows per match

Hull City

1.25

Rotherham

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

76%

Hull City or Rotherham

74%

Draw or Rotherham

51%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

25%

Rotherham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

78%

Hull City 2+ goals

44%

Hull City 3+ goals

19%

Rotherham 1+ goals

62%

Rotherham 2+ goals

25%

Rotherham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

67%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 164 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.75 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Rotherham defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rotherham attack 0.68 + Hull City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hull City scores more

49%

level

26%

Rotherham scores more

24%

Hull City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff