Hull City 1–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Plymouth

R. Slater 44'

A. Randell 22'

9/30/2023

Championship · Round 9The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Hull City53%

×Draw25%

Plymouth22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.95

Hull City

1.63

Plymouth

0.95

Hull City creates 72% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 27 away

1.33

creates per match

0.65

1.25

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Hull City

1.33

Plymouth

0.65

allows per match

Hull City

1.25

Plymouth

1.92

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Hull City-0.11scores less

Plymouth-0.02on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

78%

Hull City or Plymouth

75%

Draw or Plymouth

47%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

28%

Plymouth wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

80%

Hull City 2+ goals

48%

Hull City 3+ goals

22%

Plymouth 1+ goals

61%

Plymouth 2+ goals

25%

Plymouth 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

71%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 50 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.92 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.33 + Plymouth defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Plymouth attack 0.65 + Hull City defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hull City scores more

53%

level

25%

Plymouth scores more

22%

Hull City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

T. Morton

Hull City · M

8.0

Match Events

22'

A. Randell

44'

R. Slater↳ J. Philogene

47'

Finn Azaz

55'

K. Kesler-Hayden← M. Gillesphey

62'

L. Delap← Adama Noss Traoré

62'

S. Twine← R. Slater

72'

L. Coyle← Rúben Vinagre

74'

M. Bundu← B. Mumba

77'

Julio Pleguezuelo

82'

M. Butcher← F. Azaz

82'

L. Cundle← A. Randell

90+4'

Liam Delap

90'

Cyrus Christie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullPlymouth

Overview

66%Possession34%

21Total Shots11

1.73Expected Goals (xG)0.70

11Corners4

9Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots11

5On Target5

8Off Target3

8Blocked3

14Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

609Total Passes327

538Accurate Passes249

88%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1