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Hull City vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
K. Lewis-Potter 70'
J. Magennis 61'
K. Vassell 22'
4/17/2021League OneLeague One · Round 42KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City49%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.41
Fleetwood Town
0.89

Hull City creates 58% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 135 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Fleetwood Town
1.16

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
76%
Hull City or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
51%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
24%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
76%
Hull City 2+ goals
41%
Hull City 3+ goals
17%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
59%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
22%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
67%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.41

Fleetwood Town attack 1.16 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hull City scores more
49%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
24%

Hull City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
G. DochertyHull CityHull City · M
7.7

Match Events

6'
Janoi Donacien
22'
K. Vassell↳ W. Burns
61'
J. Magennis↳ G. Docherty
70'
K. Lewis-Potter↳ D. Crowley
71'
G. Whyte← D. Crowley
76'
H. Saunders← K. Vassell
76'
S. Finley← J. Rossiter
76'
G. Garner← B. McKay
86'
H. Biggins← W. Burns
87'
M. Duffy← C. Camps
90+2'
R. Smallwood← M. Wilks

Possession

56%Hull

Shots

9Hull

Pass accuracy

52%Hull

Statistics

HullFleetwood
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots14
7Corners4
4Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots14
2On Target3
1Off Target5
6Blocked6
6Inside Box10
3Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
446Total Passes346
335Accurate Passes242
75%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
4Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides4

Match Recap: Hull City vs Fleetwood Town

Hull City beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 in League One on April 17, 2021.

Goals: K. Vassell (22'), J. Magennis (61'), K. Lewis-Potter (70').

Hull City controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.