Hull City 1–3 Arsenal: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Arsenal

S. Quinn 56'

A. Sánchez 45+1', 28'

A. Ramsey 33'

5/4/2015

Premier League · Round 35Kingston Communications Stadium (Hull)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City29%

×Draw24%

Arsenal46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.63

Hull City

1.25

Arsenal

1.63

Arsenal creates 30% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 210 away

1.26

creates per match

1.63

1.64

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

Arsenal

1.63

allows per match

Hull City

1.64

Arsenal

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

54%

Hull City or Arsenal

76%

Draw or Arsenal

71%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

12%

Arsenal wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

71%

Hull City 2+ goals

36%

Hull City 3+ goals

13%

Arsenal 1+ goals

80%

Arsenal 2+ goals

48%

Arsenal 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

39%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 210 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Arsenal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arsenal attack 1.63 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hull City scores more

29%

level

24%

Arsenal scores more

46%

Arsenal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

A. Sánchez

33'

A. Ramsey↳ Cazorla

45+1'

A. Sánchez↳ A. Ramsey

46'

D. Meyler← J. Livermore

56'

S. Quinn↳ Ahmed El Mohamady

65'

A. Robertson← S. Aluko

68'

J. Wilshere← A. Ramsey

81'

N. Jelavić← S. Quinn

86'

T. Walcott← O. Giroud

Hull

Arsenal

13

4

18

6

39

11

19

A

Cazorla

34

Coquelin

16

⚽A

▼

Ramsey

17

⚽2

Sánchez

12

▼

22

21

15

5

29

⚽

▼

Quinn

8

Huddlesto

24

▼

Aluko

27

A

Mohamady

14

▼

Livermore

28

N'Doye

11

Brady

46'▲D. Meyler←▼J. Livermore

65'▲A. Robertson←▼S. Aluko

81'▲N. Jelavić←▼S. Quinn

Hull City substitutes

7Meyler26Robertson18Jelavić1McGregor2Rosenior4Bruce9Hernández

68'▲J. Wilshere←▼A. Ramsey

86'▲T. Walcott←▼O. Giroud

Arsenal substitutes

10Wilshere14Walcott1Szczęsny3Gibbs5Paulista7Rosický20Flamini