Hull City 1–0 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

K. Lewis-Potter 45+7'

10/20/2020

League One · Round 7KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City54%

×Draw26%

AFC Wimbledon20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.78

Hull City

1.48

AFC Wimbledon

0.78

Hull City creates 90% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 109 away

1.39

creates per match

0.96

0.61

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Hull City

1.39

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

allows per match

Hull City

0.61

AFC Wimbledon

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

80%

Hull City or AFC Wimbledon

74%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

46%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

28%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

77%

Hull City 2+ goals

43%

Hull City 3+ goals

19%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

54%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

18%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

73%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hull City scores more

54%

level

26%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

20%

Hull City at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

R. Burke

Hull City · D

7.7

Match Events

17'

Alex Woodyard

30'

J. Emmanuel← L. Coyle

45+7'

K. Lewis-Potter

58'

A. Hartigan← J. Oksanen

58'

R. Longman← J. Rudoni

64'

M. Wilks← H. Adelakun

73'

T. Eaves← J. Magennis

78'

Dániel Csóka

89'

Mallik Wilks

90'

George Honeyman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullAFC

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots9

6Corners3

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots9

5On Target1

3Off Target4

3Blocked4

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

376Total Passes325

267Accurate Passes206

71%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1