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Hull City vs Accrington ST — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
J. Magennis 67' (pen)
G. Whyte 55'
M. Wilks 37'
1/19/2021League OneLeague One · Round 11KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City55%
×Draw26%
Accrington ST19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.53
Accrington ST
0.78

Hull City creates 96% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 107 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Accrington ST
0.96

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Accrington ST
1.68

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
81%
Hull City or Accrington ST
74%
Draw or Accrington ST
45%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
29%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
78%
Hull City 2+ goals
45%
Hull City 3+ goals
20%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
54%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
18%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
74%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.68 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Accrington ST defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Accrington ST attack 0.96 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hull City scores more
55%
level
26%
Accrington ST scores more
19%

Hull City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. ElderHull CityHull City · D
8.0

Match Events

31'
Sean McConville
37'
M. Wilks↳ K. Lewis-Potter
52'
Cameron Burgess
55'
G. Whyte
57'
George Honeyman
65'
J. Magennis← K. Lewis-Potter
66'
Cameron Burgess
66'
Cameron Burgess
66'
D. Crowley← G. Whyte
67'
J. MagennisPenalty
69'
Alfie Jones
77'
R. Slater← G. Honeyman
77'
J. Flores← R. Smallwood
77'
G. Roberts← J. Pritchard
77'
R. Fenlon← S. McConville
78'
S. Sama← R. Sykes
81'
J. Russell← C. Bishop
82'
J. Emmanuel← G. Docherty
82'
T. Uwakwe← D. Charles

Possession

50%Hull

Shots

18Hull

Pass accuracy

51%Hull

Statistics

HullAccrington
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots12
6Corners6
11Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots12
7On Target2
8Off Target3
3Blocked7
11Inside Box8
7Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
414Total Passes400
309Accurate Passes292
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Accrington ST

Hull City beat Accrington ST 3-0 in League One on January 19, 2021.

Goals: M. Wilks (37'), G. Whyte (55'), J. Magennis (67' pen).

Hull City controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.