Huima / Urho 5–1 IPS Edustus: Result & Stats

Huima / Urho

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

IPS Edustus

2/15/2025

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundÄänekosken ylipainehalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Huima / Urho24%

×Draw16%

IPS Edustus59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huima / UrhoExpected goals in this matchIPS Edustus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

3.38

Huima / Urho

2.21

IPS Edustus

3.38

IPS Edustus creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.80

creates per match

4.75

2.00

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Huima / Urho

2.80

IPS Edustus

4.75

allows per match

Huima / Urho

2.00

IPS Edustus

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huima / Urho+0.00on par

IPS Edustus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huima / Urho ↓

IPS Edustus →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–36%

1–45%

2–01%

2–13%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–35%

3–44%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

80%20%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Huima / Urho or draw

41%

Huima / Urho or IPS Edustus

84%

Draw or IPS Edustus

76%

Winning margin

Huima / Urho wins by 2+

12%

IPS Edustus wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Huima / Urho 1+ goals

89%

Huima / Urho 2+ goals

65%

Huima / Urho 3+ goals

38%

IPS Edustus 1+ goals

96%

IPS Edustus 2+ goals

84%

IPS Edustus 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Huima / Urho (draw refunded)

29%

IPS Edustus (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huima / Urho at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

IPS Edustus away — creates 4.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huima / Urho attack 2.80 + IPS Edustus defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.21

IPS Edustus attack 4.75 + Huima / Urho defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Huima / Urho scores more

24%

level

16%

IPS Edustus scores more

59%

IPS Edustus at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "IPS Edustus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff