Huila 0–0 Real Soacha: Result & Stats | Primera B

Huila

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Soacha

11/2/2024

Primera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 2Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Huila48%

×Draw28%

Real Soacha24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuilaExpected goals in this matchReal Soacha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.88

Huila

1.36

Real Soacha

0.88

Huila creates 55% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 56 away

1.53

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Huila

1.53

Real Soacha

1.00

allows per match

Huila

0.75

Real Soacha

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huila+0.00on par

Real Soacha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Real Soacha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huila or draw

76%

Huila or Real Soacha

72%

Draw or Real Soacha

52%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+

23%

Real Soacha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals

74%

Huila 2+ goals

39%

Huila 3+ goals

16%

Real Soacha 1+ goals

59%

Real Soacha 2+ goals

22%

Real Soacha 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)

66%

Real Soacha (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.75 · 89 matches

Real Soacha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.53 + Real Soacha defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Real Soacha attack 1.00 + Huila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huila scores more

48%

level

28%

Real Soacha scores more

24%

Huila at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff