Huila 3–2 Internacional de Bogota: Result & Stats

Huila

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional de Bogota

7/13/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 1Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila41%

×Draw28%

Internacional de Bogota31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuilaExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Bogota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.08

Huila

1.27

Internacional de Bogota

1.08

Huila creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 171 away

1.13

creates per match

0.90

1.26

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Huila

1.13

Internacional de Bogota

0.90

allows per match

Huila

1.26

Internacional de Bogota

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huila+0.00on par

Internacional de Bogota+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Internacional de Bogota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw

69%

Huila or Internacional de Bogota

72%

Draw or Internacional de Bogota

59%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+

18%

Internacional de Bogota wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals

72%

Huila 2+ goals

36%

Huila 3+ goals

14%

Internacional de Bogota 1+ goals

66%

Internacional de Bogota 2+ goals

29%

Internacional de Bogota 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)

56%

Internacional de Bogota (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Internacional de Bogota away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 171 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Internacional de Bogota defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Internacional de Bogota attack 0.90 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huila scores more

41%

level

28%

Internacional de Bogota scores more

31%

Huila at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff