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Huila vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
4/26/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 16Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila37%
×Draw27%
Independiente Medellin36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.24
Independiente Medellin
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 185 away

creates per match

Huila
1.13
Independiente Medellin
1.16

allows per match

Huila
1.26
Independiente Medellin
1.35

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Independiente Medellin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huila or draw
64%
Huila or Independiente Medellin
73%
Draw or Independiente Medellin
63%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
16%
Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
71%
Huila 2+ goals
35%
Huila 3+ goals
13%
Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
70%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
34%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
51%
Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huila scores more
37%
level
27%
Independiente Medellin scores more
36%

Huila at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huila vs Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Huila 3-2 in Primera A on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.