Huila 3–0 Fortaleza FC: Result & Stats | Primera B

Huila

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortaleza FC

4/17/2021

Primera B · Apertura - Quadrangular - 1Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Huila47%

×Draw28%

Fortaleza FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuilaExpected goals in this matchFortaleza FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.89

Huila

1.33

Fortaleza FC

0.89

Huila creates 49% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 107 away

1.53

creates per match

1.03

0.75

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Huila

1.53

Fortaleza FC

1.03

allows per match

Huila

0.75

Fortaleza FC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huila+0.00on par

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Fortaleza FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Huila or draw

75%

Huila or Fortaleza FC

72%

Draw or Fortaleza FC

53%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+

22%

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals

74%

Huila 2+ goals

38%

Huila 3+ goals

15%

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

59%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

22%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)

65%

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.75 · 89 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.53 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fortaleza FC attack 1.03 + Huila defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huila scores more

47%

level

28%

Fortaleza FC scores more

25%

Huila at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff