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Huila vs Deportivo Pereira — Primera A 2018

Huila
Huila
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Pereira
Deportivo Pereira
11/15/2021Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Huila41%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Pereira32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huila
1.28
Deportivo Pereira
1.09

Huila creates 17% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 131 away

creates per match

Huila
1.13
Deportivo Pereira
0.93

allows per match

Huila
1.26
Deportivo Pereira
1.43

finishing

Huila+0.00on par
Deportivo Pereira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huila ↓

Deportivo Pereira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huila or draw
68%
Huila or Deportivo Pereira
72%
Draw or Deportivo Pereira
59%

Winning margin

Huila wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Pereira wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huila 1+ goals
72%
Huila 2+ goals
37%
Huila 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Pereira 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Pereira 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo Pereira 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huila (draw refunded)
56%
Deportivo Pereira (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huila at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

Deportivo Pereira away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.43 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huila attack 1.13 + Deportivo Pereira defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Deportivo Pereira attack 0.93 + Huila defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huila scores more
41%
level
28%
Deportivo Pereira scores more
32%

Huila at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Huila 0–2 Deportivo Pereira

Deportivo Pereira beat Huila 2-0 in Primera A on November 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Plazas Alcid in Neiva.