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Huginn vs Vestri — 2. Deild 2018

Huginn
Huginn
FT
0 – 1
Vestri
Vestri
6/30/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 9Fellavöllur (Fellabær )

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Huginn25%
×Draw26%
Vestri48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huginn
0.98
Vestri
1.46

Vestri creates 49% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Huginn
0.55
Vestri
1.36

allows per match

Huginn
1.55
Vestri
1.41

finishing

Huginn+0.00on par
Vestri+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huginn ↓

Vestri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huginn or draw
52%
Huginn or Vestri
74%
Draw or Vestri
75%

Winning margin

Huginn wins by 2+
9%
Vestri wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Huginn 1+ goals
62%
Huginn 2+ goals
26%
Huginn 3+ goals
8%
Vestri 1+ goals
77%
Vestri 2+ goals
43%
Vestri 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Huginn (draw refunded)
34%
Vestri (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huginn at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Vestri away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huginn attack 0.55 + Vestri defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.98

Vestri attack 1.36 + Huginn defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huginn scores more
25%
level
26%
Vestri scores more
48%

Vestri at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vestri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huginn 0 – 1 Vestri

Vestri beat Huginn 1-0 in 2. Deild on June 30, 2018.

The match was played at Fellavöllur (Fellabær ).