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Huginn vs Afturelding — 2. Deild 2018

Huginn
Huginn
FT
1 – 3
Afturelding
Afturelding
6/10/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 6Fellavöllur (Fellabær )

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Huginn15%
×Draw20%
Afturelding65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huginn
0.91
Afturelding
2.10

Afturelding creates 131% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Huginn
0.55
Afturelding
2.64

allows per match

Huginn
1.55
Afturelding
1.27

finishing

Huginn+0.00on par
Afturelding+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huginn ↓

Afturelding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Huginn or draw
35%
Huginn or Afturelding
80%
Draw or Afturelding
85%

Winning margin

Huginn wins by 2+
5%
Afturelding wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Huginn 1+ goals
60%
Huginn 2+ goals
23%
Huginn 3+ goals
6%
Afturelding 1+ goals
88%
Afturelding 2+ goals
62%
Afturelding 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Huginn (draw refunded)
19%
Afturelding (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huginn at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Afturelding away — creates 2.64, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huginn attack 0.55 + Afturelding defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.91

Afturelding attack 2.64 + Huginn defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Huginn scores more
15%
level
20%
Afturelding scores more
65%

Afturelding at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Huginn 1–3 Afturelding

Afturelding beat Huginn 3-1 in 2. Deild on June 10, 2018.

The match was played at Fellavöllur (Fellabær ).