Huétor Vega 1–1 Polideportivo Almería

Huétor Vega

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Polideportivo Almería

Carlos Gomez 90+3'

Moussa 16'

11/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 6Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Huétor Vega52%

×Draw25%

Polideportivo Almería23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huétor VegaExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.02

Huétor Vega

1.65

Polideportivo Almería

1.02

Huétor Vega creates 62% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 63 away

1.43

creates per match

0.84

1.21

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Huétor Vega

1.43

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Huétor Vega

1.21

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw

77%

Huétor Vega or Polideportivo Almería

75%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

48%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

28%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

81%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

49%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

23%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

64%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

27%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

69%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.65

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Huétor Vega scores more

52%

level

25%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

23%

Huétor Vega at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Moussa

53'

Manu Oro← Manu Martos

65'

Rubén Alarcón← Ángel Morillas

65'

Mayas← Alfonso

65'

Kevin Torres← Sergio Ponte

65'

Pedro Ruzzo← Álvaro Cruz

70'

Carlos Gomez← Capilla Garzón

79'

Dani Garzón← Manolo

79'

Alberto Segura← Alonso

89'

Marcos Moreno← Ablaye

90+3'

Carlos Gomez

Huétor

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Joseba Aguado

53'▲Manu Oro←▼Manu Martos

65'▲Rubén Alarcón←▼Ángel Morillas

65'▲Mayas←▼Alfonso

70'▲Carlos Gomez←▼Capilla Garzón

Huétor Vega substitutes

OroAlarcónMayasGomez

Manager: Juanfran Miras

65'▲Kevin Torres←▼Sergio Ponte

65'▲Pedro Ruzzo←▼Álvaro Cruz

79'▲Dani Garzón←▼Manolo

79'▲Alberto Segura←▼Alonso

89'▲Marcos Moreno←▼Ablaye

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

TorresRuzzoGarzónSeguraMoreno