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Huétor Vega vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Huétor Vega44%
×Draw28%
Mancha Real28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.29
Mancha Real
0.97

Huétor Vega creates 33% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 79 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
72%
Huétor Vega or Mancha Real
72%
Draw or Mancha Real
56%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
20%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
72%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
37%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
14%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
62%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
25%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
61%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
44%
level
28%
Mancha Real scores more
28%

Huétor Vega at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huétor Vega 3 – 1 Mancha Real

Huétor Vega beat Mancha Real 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.