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Huétor Vega vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Malaga City
Malaga City
4/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Huétor Vega55%
×Draw24%
Malaga City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.69
Malaga City
0.94

Huétor Vega creates 80% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
79%
Huétor Vega or Malaga City
76%
Draw or Malaga City
45%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
30%
Malaga City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
82%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
50%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
24%
Malaga City 1+ goals
61%
Malaga City 2+ goals
24%
Malaga City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
72%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
55%
level
24%
Malaga City scores more
21%

Huétor Vega at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huétor Vega vs Malaga City

Huétor Vega and Malaga City drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.