Huétor Vega 3–4 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

Huétor Vega

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 4

Linares Deportivo

Jordi 71'

Marcos Corral 62'

Dani Moreno 23'

Sergio 43'

Dani Espejo 40', 35'

Rosendo Alarcon 11'

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Huétor Vega26%

×Draw25%

Linares Deportivo50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huétor VegaExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.64

Huétor Vega

1.11

Linares Deportivo

1.64

Linares Deportivo creates 48% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 14 away

1.43

creates per match

2.07

1.21

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Huétor Vega

1.43

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Huétor Vega

1.21

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw

50%

Huétor Vega or Linares Deportivo

75%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

74%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

10%

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

67%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

30%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

10%

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

81%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

49%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

34%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.11

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Huétor Vega scores more

26%

level

25%

Linares Deportivo scores more

50%

Linares Deportivo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

23'

35'

40'

43'

58'

60'

Marcos Corral← Capilla Garzón

62'

Marcos Corral

68'

D'Ávila Messi← Cristian Gutiérrez

71'

Jordi

74'

Anaba← A. Araiza

76'

Sergio García← Armando

85'

Jota Fernández← Sergio

Huétor

Linares

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: Jaime Morente

60'▲Marcos Corral←▼Capilla Garzón

68'▲D'Ávila Messi←▼Cristian Gutiérrez

76'▲Sergio García←▼Armando

Huétor Vega substitutes

CorralMessiGarcía

Manager: Juan Arsenal

58'▲Fran Carnicer←▼Isra

74'▲Anaba←▼A. Araiza

85'▲Jota Fernández←▼Sergio

Linares Deportivo substitutes

CarnicerAnabaFernández

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 3–4 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Huétor Vega 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 13, 2019.

Goals: Rosendo Alarcon (11'), Dani Moreno (23'), Dani Espejo (35', 40'), Sergio (43'), Marcos Corral (62'), Jordi (71').

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.

Huétor Vega vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 3–4 Linares Deportivo