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Huétor Vega vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
5/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Huétor Vega43%
×Draw26%
Huétor Tájar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.44
Huétor Tájar
1.16

Huétor Vega creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
70%
Huétor Vega or Huétor Tájar
74%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
57%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
21%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
76%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
42%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
18%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
69%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
32%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
59%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
43%
level
26%
Huétor Tájar scores more
30%

Huétor Vega at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 0–0 Huétor Tájar

Huétor Vega and Huétor Tájar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.