Huétor Vega 1–3 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Huétor Vega

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Jorge Vela 21'

Urko Arroyo 83'

Juanfran 45', 43'

4/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Huétor Vega43%

×Draw26%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huétor VegaExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Torredonjimeno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.19

Huétor Vega

1.44

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.19

Huétor Vega creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

1.43

creates per match

1.16

1.21

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Huétor Vega

1.43

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.16

allows per match

Huétor Vega

1.21

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw

69%

Huétor Vega or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

74%

Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

57%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

21%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

76%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

42%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

18%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

70%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

33%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

58%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huétor Vega scores more

43%

level

26%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

31%

Huétor Vega at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Jorge Vela

43'

Juanfran

45'

Juanfran

55'

Antonio← Jorge Galdón

55'

Padilla← Hurtado

55'

Virgilio← Cristian Rentero

59'

Javi Prieto← Jorge Vela

64'

Javi Bueno← Sergio Pérez

64'

Urko Arroyo← Manu Sarmiento

76'

Aarón Martín← Joel Armengol

76'

Lozano← Kiko Carmona

76'

David Estrella← Boateng

83'

Urko Arroyo

Huétor

Ciudad

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Vela

Salvatier

▼

Carmona

Manager: Thierry

55'▲Antonio←▼Jorge Galdón

55'▲Padilla←▼Hurtado

59'▲Javi Prieto←▼Jorge Vela

76'▲Aarón Martín←▼Joel Armengol

76'▲Lozano←▼Kiko Carmona

Huétor Vega substitutes

AntonioPadillaPrietoMartínLozano

Manager: Agustín

55'▲Virgilio←▼Cristian Rentero

64'▲Javi Bueno←▼Sergio Pérez

64'▲Urko Arroyo←▼Manu Sarmiento

76'▲David Estrella←▼Boateng

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno substitutes

VirgilioBuenoArroyoEstrella

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 1–3 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Huétor Vega 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: Jorge Vela (21'), Juanfran (43', 45'), Urko Arroyo (83').

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.

Huétor Vega vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 1–3 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno