Huétor Vega 3–1 Atlético Melilla: Result & Stats

Huétor Vega

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Melilla

10/21/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Huétor Vega77%

×Draw14%

Atlético Melilla9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huétor VegaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Melilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.84

Huétor Vega

2.80

Atlético Melilla

0.84

Huétor Vega creates 233% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

1.43

creates per match

0.47

1.21

allows per match

4.18

creates per match

Huétor Vega

1.43

Atlético Melilla

0.47

allows per match

Huétor Vega

1.21

Atlético Melilla

4.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Atlético Melilla →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw

91%

Huétor Vega or Atlético Melilla

86%

Draw or Atlético Melilla

23%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

57%

Atlético Melilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

94%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

76%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

52%

Atlético Melilla 1+ goals

57%

Atlético Melilla 2+ goals

21%

Atlético Melilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

90%

Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.80

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Huétor Vega scores more

77%

level

14%

Atlético Melilla scores more

Huétor Vega at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 3–1 Atlético Melilla

Huétor Vega beat Atlético Melilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.

Huétor Vega vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Vega 3–1 Atlético Melilla