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Huétor Vega vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 17Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Huétor Vega41%
×Draw28%
Arenas Armilla31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.29
Arenas Armilla
1.07

Huétor Vega creates 21% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 68 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Arenas Armilla
0.94

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Arenas Armilla
1.16

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Arenas Armilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
69%
Huétor Vega or Arenas Armilla
72%
Draw or Arenas Armilla
59%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
19%
Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
72%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
37%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
14%
Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
66%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
29%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
57%
Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
41%
level
28%
Arenas Armilla scores more
31%

Huétor Vega at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huétor Vega vs Arenas Armilla

Huétor Vega and Arenas Armilla drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.