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Arenas Armilla vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
12/7/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Arenas Armilla43%
×Draw27%
Huétor Vega30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arenas Armilla
1.33
Huétor Vega
1.07

Arenas Armilla creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 109 away

creates per match

Arenas Armilla
1.29
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Arenas Armilla
1.10
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw
70%
Arenas Armilla or Huétor Vega
73%
Draw or Huétor Vega
57%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
20%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
74%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
38%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
15%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
66%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
29%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
59%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more
43%
level
27%
Huétor Vega scores more
30%

Arenas Armilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arenas Armilla vs Huétor Vega

Arenas Armilla beat Huétor Vega 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.