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Huétor Vega vs Almería II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Almería II
Almería II
3/31/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 27Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Huétor Vega37%
×Draw26%
Almería II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.36
Almería II
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 75 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Almería II
1.51

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Almería II
1.29

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Almería II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Almería II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
63%
Huétor Vega or Almería II
74%
Draw or Almería II
63%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
17%
Almería II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
74%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
39%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
16%
Almería II 1+ goals
74%
Almería II 2+ goals
39%
Almería II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
50%
Almería II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Almería II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Almería II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Almería II attack 1.51 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
37%
level
26%
Almería II scores more
37%

Huétor Vega at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huétor Vega vs Almería II

Almería II beat Huétor Vega 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.