Huétor Vega 1–4 Alhaurín: Result & Stats

Huétor Vega

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Alhaurín

5/2/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Huétor Vega54%

×Draw23%

Alhaurín23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huétor VegaExpected goals in this matchAlhaurín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.09

Huétor Vega

1.82

Alhaurín

1.09

Huétor Vega creates 67% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 43 away

1.43

creates per match

0.98

1.21

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Huétor Vega

1.43

Alhaurín

0.98

allows per match

Huétor Vega

1.21

Alhaurín

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Alhaurín →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw

77%

Huétor Vega or Alhaurín

77%

Draw or Alhaurín

46%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+

31%

Alhaurín wins by 2+

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals

84%

Huétor Vega 2+ goals

54%

Huétor Vega 3+ goals

27%

Alhaurín 1+ goals

66%

Alhaurín 2+ goals

30%

Alhaurín 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)

71%

Alhaurín (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Huétor Vega scores more

54%

level

23%

Alhaurín scores more

23%

Huétor Vega at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff