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Huétor Tájar vs Torreperogil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torreperogil
Torreperogil
11/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Huétor Tájar50%
×Draw26%
Torreperogil24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
1.51
Torreperogil
0.94

Huétor Tájar creates 61% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Torreperogil
0.87

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Torreperogil
1.53

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Torreperogil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Torreperogil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
76%
Huétor Tájar or Torreperogil
74%
Draw or Torreperogil
50%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
26%
Torreperogil wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
78%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
44%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
19%
Torreperogil 1+ goals
61%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
24%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
68%
Torreperogil (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Torreperogil away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Torreperogil defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Torreperogil attack 0.87 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
50%
level
26%
Torreperogil scores more
24%

Huétor Tájar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Tájar 1–0 Torreperogil

Huétor Tájar beat Torreperogil 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.