Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huétor Tájar vs Real Jaén — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Jaén
Real Jaén
4/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 29Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Huétor Tájar40%
×Draw28%
Real Jaén32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
1.26
Real Jaén
1.08

Huétor Tájar creates 17% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 93 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Real Jaén
1.15

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Real Jaén
1.03

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Real Jaén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
68%
Huétor Tájar or Real Jaén
72%
Draw or Real Jaén
60%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
18%
Real Jaén wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
72%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
36%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
13%
Real Jaén 1+ goals
66%
Real Jaén 2+ goals
29%
Real Jaén 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
56%
Real Jaén (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.26

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
40%
level
28%
Real Jaén scores more
32%

Huétor Tájar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huétor Tájar vs Real Jaén

Huétor Tájar and Real Jaén drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.