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Huétor Tájar vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Huétor Tájar63%
×Draw21%
Melilla CD16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
2.05
Melilla CD
0.92

Huétor Tájar creates 123% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
84%
Huétor Tájar or Melilla CD
79%
Draw or Melilla CD
37%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
39%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
87%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
61%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
33%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
60%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
23%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
80%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.05

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
63%
level
21%
Melilla CD scores more
16%

Huétor Tájar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huétor Tájar vs Melilla CD

Melilla CD beat Huétor Tájar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.