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Huétor Tájar vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malaga City
Malaga City
10/19/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Huétor Tájar58%
×Draw24%
Malaga City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
1.73
Malaga City
0.84

Huétor Tájar creates 106% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
82%
Huétor Tájar or Malaga City
76%
Draw or Malaga City
42%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
33%
Malaga City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
82%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
52%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
25%
Malaga City 1+ goals
57%
Malaga City 2+ goals
21%
Malaga City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
76%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.73

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
58%
level
24%
Malaga City scores more
18%

Huétor Tájar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huétor Tájar vs Malaga City

Huétor Tájar beat Malaga City 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.