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Huétor Tájar vs Juventud Torremolinos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Juventud Torremolinos
Juventud Torremolinos
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huétor Tájar34%
×Draw27%
Juventud Torremolinos39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
1.16
Juventud Torremolinos
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 45 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Juventud Torremolinos
1.53

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Juventud Torremolinos
0.82

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Juventud Torremolinos+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Juventud Torremolinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
61%
Huétor Tájar or Juventud Torremolinos
73%
Draw or Juventud Torremolinos
66%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
14%
Juventud Torremolinos wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
69%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
32%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
11%
Juventud Torremolinos 1+ goals
72%
Juventud Torremolinos 2+ goals
36%
Juventud Torremolinos 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
46%
Juventud Torremolinos (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Juventud Torremolinos away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Juventud Torremolinos defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.16

Juventud Torremolinos attack 1.53 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
34%
level
27%
Juventud Torremolinos scores more
39%

Juventud Torremolinos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventud Torremolinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Tájar 0–3 Juventud Torremolinos

Juventud Torremolinos beat Huétor Tájar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.