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Huétor Tájar vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Alhaurín
Alhaurín
4/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Huétor Tájar57%
×Draw23%
Alhaurín20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Tájar
1.85
Alhaurín
0.99

Huétor Tájar creates 87% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 43 away

creates per match

Huétor Tájar
1.49
Alhaurín
0.98

allows per match

Huétor Tájar
1.01
Alhaurín
2.21

finishing

Huétor Tájar+0.00on par
Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Tájar ↓

Alhaurín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Huétor Tájar or draw
80%
Huétor Tájar or Alhaurín
77%
Draw or Alhaurín
43%

Winning margin

Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
33%
Alhaurín wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
84%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
55%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
28%
Alhaurín 1+ goals
63%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
26%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
74%
Alhaurín (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Tájar at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.01 · 110 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Tájar attack 1.49 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Huétor Tájar scores more
57%
level
23%
Alhaurín scores more
20%

Huétor Tájar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Huétor Tájar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Huétor Tájar 4–1 Alhaurín

Huétor Tájar beat Alhaurín 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto in Huétor Tájar.